Trying to middle when you do not middle often is bad news

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Another Day, Another Dollar
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If one does not seek to middle on a routine basis, then isn't a middle attempt here and there more so a money giveaway?

If you are going try it, then try it often. Do not just stab here and there.

Thoughts
 

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Wrong, General. A good middle, either defined by a range of numbers or by favorable money odds, is always worth taking a shot at. It doesn't matter how many you play, the odds don't change for each individual play. In other words, and admittedly not representative, if somone offered you a bet that paid 20 to 1 yet had a 'true' 1 in 8 chance of paying off, you'd be crazy not to play it even if your chances of winning were only 12.5% - that's because the payoff is more than double what the true odds are. Eventually even with low volume on good plays, you'll cash and be ahead of the game.
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It's like sum fucking Beckett play that we're rehe
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In addition, since the outcome of the games is random and not correlated, there is no differnce in the EV based on a larger sample size.
The real key, as Jazz points out, is identifying these opportunities.
Alas, I have little ability in this area.
BUt I can spot a hot asian woman at 50 yards with her backed turned.

Hey Now

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Yeah, good to see you Jazz. I actually read your post, was nodding my head the whole time, then looked to left to see your name. General's point is maybe more psychological than anything...if you do just one of these per month, even at 20-1 for a true 8-1, it could easily take you 8 or more months to cash once. Most gamblers by their very nature are short-term thinkers.

The bottom line is that you should do middles
often. :p
 

There's always next year, like in 75, 90-93, 99 &
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I'm about 0 for 20 on middles and (of course) 1 for 1 on getting nailed on a polish middle
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The frequency with which you do it makes no difference from a mathematical standpoint. What matters is the odds of the event occuring, how much you can bet and your bankroll size.

For example, if in NFL football you are so fortunate that you can get a team -6.5 at even money, and the opponent at +7 even money, and you had no concerns about being paid at all, then you could theoretically bet 50% of your bankroll on one side and 50% on the other side. If you could get even money on one side and -110 on the other, you would lose the juice on one bet half the time, and would have to take this into consideration in sizing your bets.

The more juice you lay, combined with the (in)frequency of the event occuring are the important aspects concerning how much you should wager. The frequency for how often you make these middle bets is irrelevant. It does not matter if you make 100 bets in a month or 100 bets in a decade from a mathematical return aspect.

From a psychological aspect, there may be some value to the time aspect, but one could argue that if psychological factors affect your mathematical evaluation, then maybe you should not be betting at all.
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David
 

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I'm 10/10 on polish middles that are +EV. I've escaped the dragon so far...
 

ATX

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General,

I think what you are getting at is the fact that some middles are stronger than others.

And I'm not referring to the range of numbers in between.

Some numbers are very probable (relatively), like the 94,95 on SA/LA 1st half yesterday. The key is to have a strong probability distribution. I have noticed that announced injuries (prior to tip) create profitable oppurtunites as the public drives the line (NY/ORL, PHI/NO).

"Blind" middles can damage profitability as you give up the value on the 'right' side. And that can damage the psyche as well.
 

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In bases so far this year I have found more value in road favs winning by 1 run. Alot less juice, sometimes as low as 22-23 cents!
I havent played against the 1 run game yet as I have this fear of being middled myself.
 

Another Day, Another Dollar
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If i could get....

Boston -5 w/ Detroit +8(NBA)

or

New England -6 w/ Dallas +8(NFL)

What I am saying is that by trying an attempt at the middle on either 2 only once per year is bad.

If you try this oppurtunity everytime that it arises, then you have a better chance of making some gains. Odds are more in your favor to make money doing it often than if you just happen to see it one day & try it once for giggles.

Do it often or forget it.

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It's like sum fucking Beckett play that we're rehe
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I'm confused Geneeral.

If you could get Boston -5 and Detroit +8, 3 points in basketball, then you should always take it. Another option would be to look to the moneyline in that instance. I don't play the number in NBA, ML only. I have a hard enough time figuring out who will win, let alone if some guy will hit a meanigless free throw (or in 76ers game, if they called the foul with 0.3 secinds left)

If you could get NE -6 and Dallas +8, bet the whole freaking bank. Get a middle 7, tie on 6 and 8, hell pay for both half pointds and get a 3 point win. I've never seen 3 points on NFL. Same point, look to the ML if you see a 6 v 8 spread.

The alternate you have to the middle, is to load the side you believe to be the correct line and count on your handicapping prowess (i.e. if you handicap the NBA game at 5, just bet the +8, or if the NFL game is -8 in your eyes (In your eyes, I feel the heat, iN your , I am complete, sorry Peter Gabriel Flashback) then load up on the -6.

Best of luck in all you do.

5 by 5

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Another Day, Another Dollar
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assassin,

Thanks for the feedback.

In the cases above, lets say you have a strong lean to the favorites in both events. You are deadset on wagering the fav in both, then click open another site you have funded. You see the possibility of the middle attempts. So, like a guy who wants to be a middler you see the value & feel the need to try the middle, even though you do not middle very often at all. You go ahead & put a dime on each side(or most likely less than a dollar). You lose the dog bets and win the fav bets like you figured and capped correctly.

You are down vig for your efforts. Maybe it hits but the odds of you hitting are slim. I think the odds are better for your money if you are going to try some more middles in the near future. Maybe daily.
 

It's like sum fucking Beckett play that we're rehe
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I prefger stright handivcapping as opposed to middling. I did a few middles onthe NBA early in the year, usually when the poits were 0-4 range and got at least 2 points. I was slightly ahead, hitting 2x with a win/push scenario. Didn't see too many good middles anyway.

NFL middling is definitely better, easpecially around the 3. Don't remember hitting any, but came very close except for some fluke plays. My hard drive crashed in February after I lent it to JJGold, so I can't be more specific.

I was looking at some NBA opportiunities tonight, but I am not confident enough on projecting Game 7 money lines, so I'll just sit back and enjoy the games.

If anyone feels confident on the game 7 NBA lines will be (any of the 3) I'd surely be interested.

5 by 5
 

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